Larry C. Johnson – Israeli and Palestinian Ceasefire… Deja Vu All Over Again?

The questionable ceasefire in Gaza

Larry C. Johnson is a former CIA officer and intelligence analyst, and former planner and advisor at the US State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism. As an independent contractor, he has provided training for the US Military’s Special Operations community for 24 years. Today he runs the website Sonar21

Cross-posted from Sonar 21

Not to begrudge Donald Trump his moment of triumph in taking credit for the latest ceasefire agreement between Netanyahu’s Zionists and the Palestinians… I hope it is successful. However, has everyone forgot the last ceasefire triumph? The last mass release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners prior to the impending October 2025 release occurred during the January-to-March 2025 ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal between Israel and Hamas. That deal involved multiple rounds of exchanges:

• In the first phase starting on January 19, 2025, Hamas released 33 Israeli captives, including children, elderly, women, and injured men, in exchange for Israel releasing around 90 Palestinians, mostly women and children .

• On January 25, Hamas released four female Israeli soldiers in return for Israel freeing 200 Palestinian prisoners including those with life sentences .

• In February 2025, exchanges included the transfer of deceased Israeli hostages’ bodies in return for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners being released by Israel, totaling nearly 600 Palestinians released, some with life sentences and involved in serious offenses .

• Additional hostages were freed through Israeli military operations during this period.

So once again we are getting a phase one implementation with the details for subsequent phases still to be decided. And that is the problem. Once Israel has all of its hostages back, it has little incentive to continue with the ceasefire and plenty of political pressure from the likes of Smotrich and Ben Gvir to renew the offensive against the Palestinians… This assumes that Donald Trump continues with his passive/aggressive behavior and does not threaten Israel with a loss of aid if it renews its genocidal campaign.

And then there are the Palestinian factions. I am skeptical that Hamas or the Palestinian Islamic Jihad will surrender their weapons and their political influence among the Palestinian people. The most likely scenario is that the war will continue once all the hostages are released and the bodies of the dead Israelis returned.

Maybe the Palestinians have caught a major break, with Russia and China each praising Trump for securing the ceasefire. Nothing like feeding the ego of an egotist. Why do I say that? With so much of Trump’s ego now invested in this peace process, maybe he now is sufficiently motivated to apply genuine pressure on Netanyahu and his gang of bloodthirsty crazies to stop the killing. If someone is able to convince him that his reputation will soar globally if he saves the Palestinians, then he might just find his balls and tell Netanyahu to shove it. One can dream, can’t one?

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