On 14 September 2026, with American diesel having crossed six dollars a gallon for the first time in history, President Trump settled the question of blame in a single sentence posted to social media: “The World’s Diesel price rise is mostly caused by the Russia/Ukraine War, not Iran.” A day earlier, at his golf resort in Doonbeg, Ireland, he had told Zelensky to “stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia,” because the strikes were “hurting the world.”
It is a tidy story, and it has one great virtue for the man telling it: it points at a war with someone else’s name on it. It is also, in its central claim, backwards. Not wholly false — the part about Ukrainian strikes is real — but backwards in the one respect that matters, the ranking of causes. The market data that Trump is implicitly citing say the opposite of what he says they say.
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