Europe is proving unable to develop a new security architecture, which is an acute danger for its citizens and neighbours

Glenn Diesen is Professor of political science with research focus on geoeconomics, Russian foreign policy and Eurasian integration

Cross-posted from Glenn’s Substack

Photo: Wikimedia Commons

As the world has shifted from unipolarity to multipolarity, the security architecture must also change to ensure peace. From Europe to the Middle East and East Asia, existing security architectures are collapsing, and new arrangements are needed to prevent great-power wars that could destroy humanity. The problem is that new security architectures have historically been established only after major wars that have shattered the previous status quo.

 

War as the Catalyst for Change

After the Napoleonic Wars, the Concert of Europe was established and organised relations from 1815 to 1914. After the First World War, a new security architecture was developed with the League of Nations, yet it collapsed in 1939 with the outbreak of the Second World War. After the Second World War, the United Nations was established to manage relations and develop shared international law. Yet, throughout the Cold War, we had a dual system, as the international system was organised under the UN, while the bipolar international distribution of power organised competing alliance systems under NATO and the Warsaw Pact.

When the Cold War came to an end, the dual system continued to exist. The West initially signed agreements for a new, inclusive pan-European security architecture based on indivisible security and without dividing lines, as outlined in the Charter of Paris for a New Europe in 1990 and the establishment of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) in 1995 – both based on the Helsinki Accords of 1975. Yet, these agreements were hollowed out by expanding NATO as an instrument of hegemonic peace, creating a new Europe without Russia as the largest country in Europe. The redivision of Europe and the undermining of the principle of indivisible security have been at the heart of the conflict between NATO and Russia for the past three decades, and this was the trigger for the Ukraine War.

New security architectures are historically born through war, as the former status quo disappears and there is a recognition of the need to establish a system to avoid war and build peace. Institutions are usually effective and problem-solving in their early phases, as their objectives are clear. In the later stages, they become decadent and institutionalised, consumed by bureaucracy and institutional self-preservation, while resisting adaptation to new realities. NATO’s transformation is an interesting example of an effort at institutional adaptation and self-preservation, as open debates focused on finding a new purpose for the military bloc that had lost its Soviet adversary – with the slogan for embracing internationalism and expansionism being “out of area or out of business”.

 

Europe Searching for a Role in the Multipolar World

All the major actors are finding new roles in the multipolar world. China and Russia are taking the lead in establishing a new geoeconomic architecture and political institutions such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation to facilitate a greater role for rising powers in the multipolar world. The US seeks to preserve or revive its former hegemonic position, yet is reluctantly adjusting to new realities by shifting its focus to the Western Hemisphere and East Asia.

The Europeans are the most reluctant to adjust to new realities, as their former role as the principal partner of the US in an international system defined by collective hegemony ensured Europe’s unity and relevance. There is also a lack of options in terms of what Europe can transition towards, as the US provided Europe with an economic model, security model, and political model, and was indeed the pacifier that ensured unity on the continent over the past decades. The Europeans can throw their full weight behind the US and face vassalage, although the failure to diversify their ties will only weaken Europe further, while a retreating US will see Europe as increasingly less relevant in the new world. Alternatively, Europe must adjust to a new international distribution of power and find unity through a geoeconomic logic of collective bargaining power and the pursuit of collective technological sovereignty. Yet, a geoeconomic Europe must adjust to realities and seek connectivity with the other centres of power – which includes Russia.

This will not happen. The institutions of the former status quo, such as NATO, are still present, which keeps alive the hope of returning to the unipolar order. On 6 November 2026, the EU foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, made this argument explicitly as she dismissed Russia’s call for reforming the European security architecture, stating: “We already have European security architecture in place. NATO and the European Union both have their respective roles. We must make sure Ukraine is integrated into this architecture.” German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul similarly argued: “Europe does not need a new security architecture, as Russia wants us to believe, but rather the simple restoration of the existing security architecture”. The massive war in Europe, which could quickly spiral into nuclear war, did not seem to affect their assessment of the stability of the former status quo.

 

War is Coming

As history has demonstrated, former security architectures remain in place long after they have outlived their function and decadence has set in. In an act of desperation and self-delusion, the Europeans embrace absurd narratives of being confronted with another Hitler to reinvent a purpose for the outdated and decadent security architecture that no longer provides security. Unwilling to accept new realities and discuss a new European security architecture, the Europeans will choose war as their Ukrainian proxy army collapses on the battlefield. Any pathway to peace that entail recognising the security concerns of Russia has been rejected as it will undermine the former hegemonic security architecture. As in the past, a new security architecture will be built after the coming war between Europe and Russia – if we survive it.

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