Iran is willing to risk it all in a war on energy assets, knowing it does not have to answer for the health of the global economy, experts say
Sean Mathews is a journalist for Middle East Eye writing about business, security and politics. His coverage spans across the Middle East, North Africa and the Balkans.
Cross-posted from Middle East Eye
Photo: X
The US’s “clumsy” handling of attacks on Iran’s energy assets has handed Tehran a lever of escalation dominance in a rapidly spiralling war, two Arab officials told Middle East Eye.
“First, Trump misjudged Iran on the Strait of Hormuz. He hasn’t fixed that. Now, he called Iran’s bluff by approving an Israeli attack on energy production. The US is showing itself to be a clumsy ally,” an Arab official told MEE.
Israel’s attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field earlier this week prompted what energy analysts have long war-gamed as a worst-case scenario: tit-for-tat strikes on complex and expensive energy production sites.
Iran retaliated to the Israeli strike by bombing Qatar’s Ras Laffan natural gas facilities.
“The South Pars attack opened a can of worms,” another Arab official told MEE. “This is another red line that has been crossed. Iran didn’t know they could close the Strait of Hormuz. Well, now they know they can take out production facilities, too.”
Iran has effectively taken control of the Strait of Hormuz, allowing its own vessels to transit the waterway and cutting deals with other countries to secure access.
Lloyd’s List, the maritime analysis service, said on Thursday that Iran had established a “de facto ‘safe’ shipping corridor” through its territorial waters. In one case, it secured a payment of $2m to allow a vessel to transit the waterway. The US’s failure to secure the critical sea lane is shaping up to be a major embarrassment for Washington.
‘Blunder’
Alan Eyre, an expert on Iran and a distinguished diplomatic fellow at the Middle East Institute, told MEE that the Israeli strike on South Pars appeared to be motivated by Trump’s decision to inflict a cost on Iran for wresting control of the Strait of Hormuz.
“It was a strategic blunder,” Eyre said.
Iran retaliated by launching attacks on Qatar’s gas facilities and the UAE and Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea crude export terminal.
The strike on Qatar was the most effective. It knocked out 17 percent of its LNG export capacity, QatarEnergy’s CEO, Saad al-Kaabi, told Reuters on Thursday, adding that it will take three to five years to repair the damage.
“At every given point in this battle, Iran has done what rational, experienced observers have expected it to do in response to US and Israeli attacks,” Eyre added.
“But I wouldn’t be categorical in saying Iran has escalation dominance over the US, that implies a parity that doesn’t exist. Iran just has less to lose and is doing things that it knows are risky because they have to.”
Trump said in a social media post on Wednesday that he “knew nothing” about the Israeli attack on South Pars, despite multiple media reports saying the US was consulted. Speaking at the White House on Thursday, Trump said he told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to repeat strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure.
“I told him, don’t do that, and he won’t do that,” Trump said.
But two Arab diplomats told MEE their capitals had no doubt that the US approved the attack. US analysts and former officials also questioned Trump’s denial.
‘Fraction of our power’
“Trump can post whatever he likes. But there is zero, I mean zero, chance the IDF would conduct a strike in that location without giving CENTCOM full visibility,” Dan Shapiro, a former US ambassador to Israel and senior Department of Defence official, wrote on X.
“Trump knew (and approved). Now he realizes it caused a major escalation with Iran’s (entirely unjustified) attacks on Gulf energy targets,” he said.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi gloated about the US’s climbdown and appeared to take a swing at Gulf states, which lashed out at Iran for the attack on their economic lifelines, oil and gas.
“Our response to Israel’s attack on our infrastructure employed FRACTION of our power. The ONLY reason for restraint was respect for requested de-escalation,” Aragchi wrote on X.
“ZERO restraint if our infrastructures are struck again. Any end to this war must address damage to our civilian sites,” he added.
Iran is still selling a big chunk of its oil and does not have to answer for the fate of the global economy. Trump is under pressure to address surging energy prices both at home and abroad.
Trump’s energy conundrum
The US and its allies are unleashing 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves. But prices, particularly for refined petroleum products, have not been tamed.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent raised eyebrows on Thursday when he said the US may lift sanctions on Iranian oil at sea. Theoretically, that would allow customers to buy the oil in US dollars, but critics pointed out it would be a windfall for the country the US is attacking. Iran sells 90 percent of its oil to China outside the US dollar system.
On Thursday, Vice President JD Vance told Americans they should not complain about rising prices because the pain is worse abroad.
“As much as we gotta focus on getting these gas prices down, the reality is that overseas, they are feeling it far worse than we did,” Vance said on Thursday.
The Trump administration ruled out reports on Thursday that it would ban US oil exports. Brent, the international benchmark, was trading at around $106 per barrel on Thursday after hitting a high of $115. However, the physical crude abroad is substantially higher.
The US has even fewer options to address rising natural gas prices.
Qatar accounts for around 20 percent of global supply. Natural gas prices in Europe surged by around 20 percent after Iran’s attack.
Both Arab officials told MEE that the latest round of strikes is viewed as a tipping point in the Gulf. For now, the Iranians appear to have succeeded in catching Trump’s attention.
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