Another update on the war in the Middle East, this time on 4 March
Eugene Doyle is a writer based in Wellington. He has written extensively on the Middle East, as well as peace and security issues in the Asia Pacific region. He hosts the public policy platform solidarity.co.nz.
Cross-posted from Solidarity NZ
The Americans seem to have worked out that exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi is unpopular with most Iranians within the country. “Trump appeared to dismiss Reza Pahlavi as an option and sketched a vision of Iran’s government similar to Venezuela’s,” Al Jazeera reported.
The US therefore compiled a short list of candidates they would allow to lead a new government in Iran. Today Trump announced – I’m not kidding – that the US and Israel had killed most of them in airstrikes! Ooops.
“Most of the people we had in mind are dead,” Trump said. “And now, we have another group. They may be dead also, based on reports.”
Sailing through Hormuz “no matter what”. What?
President Trump also announced today that the US navy will provide escorts through the Strait of Hormuz, reversing a previous refusal to secure transit for oil and gas tankers. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) aren’t big on Christian festivals but they will think all their Christmases have come at once if the US generals and admirals are too frightened to tell Trump it is a foolish idea. Trump said in a Truth Social post, relayed by the White House, the Navy and other official outlets:
“Effective IMMEDIATELY, I have ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the Financial Security of ALL Maritime Trade, especially Energy, traveling through the Gulf. This will be available to all Shipping Lines. If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible. No matter what, the United States will ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD. The United States’ ECONOMIC and MILITARY MIGHT is the GREATEST ON EARTH — More actions to come.”
Colonel Daniel Davis, a retired, decorated US combat veteran who saw multiple deployments in war zones gave this critique of the announcement:
“I just cannot imagine that the President of the United States is going to take the one advantage we have with our navy – which is standoff range – and he’ll move them into the absolute prime target range of Iran. He’ll put our ships right in the barrel of a gun. This is just madness. This is lunacy. It just can’t work.” Faint praise indeed.
As I pointed out back in February, “Iran will likely mine the Strait of Hormuz 33 km (21 miles) wide. Huge numbers of smart mines (that can recognize the acoustic signature of a tanker) will be deployed as well as hundreds of semi-submersible drone boats. Spread out across the Gulf are thousands of short-range anti-ship missiles that will be virtually impossible to suppress.”
For now, the Iranians have simply announced the closure of the Strait, through which 20% of the world’s gas and oil must pass. No tankers have dared challenge that. Should the Americans push their luck, the Iranians would seed the sea with mines that would take months to clear once hostilities cease. Stockbrokers should shudder at the thought.
Colonel Davis pointed out the terrain near the coastline of the Strait of Hormuz is ideal for hiding and firing short-range anti-ship missiles, of which the Iranians have many thousands. Davis refers to the Strait as “the singular greatest point of vulnerability.”
Winning hearts & minds by killing children?
The strategic incoherence of the US administration is on full display here: in-theatre war plans can shift daily on the whim of a President instead of being left to generals and battlefield commanders.
Operation Epic Fury is looking more like Dumb and Dumberer Have Gone to War. They are not alone. US ally Kuwait shot down several US fighter jets this week. Israel’s Iron Dome looks more like the Iron Sieve as it failed to stop dozens of missiles hitting their targets. Iran is taking a terrible pounding but the civilian death toll is racing up and, along with it, anti-American sentiment.
On March 1, the US-Israeli team killed 160 school girls in Minab. I watched the footage and heard the screams of mothers calling for children whom they will never walk to school again. Today I saw footage of Westernised women (no scarves, etc) totally bereft after their friends had just been killed in a missile strike that struck civilians in downtown Tehran. As in Vietnam, this is the US’s idea of winning hearts and minds.
Rubio says US compelled to join Israel in war
On March 3 US Secretary of State Marco Rubio explained Israel’s war plans compelled the U.S. to join the assault on Iran. Spoken like a true vassal. A sovereign USA operating in accordance with international law would have forced Israel to stand down. His statement is at best a bald admission that the US is fighting Israel’s war.
“We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action. We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces. And we knew that if we didn’t preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties,” Rubio said, thereby adding an intriguing new explanation to the growing list of explanations as to why the US says it launched its war of aggression on Iran.
“We’re going to cut off all trade with Spain.”
So, what kind of moral monsters would spurn international law and support a war of aggression like this? Well, my government for one, and the Australian government for another – but not the Spanish. When Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez ruled out Spanish participation in the war on Iran, citing the need to comply with international law, Trump responded in typically petulant fashion: “We’re going to cut off all trade with Spain. We don’t want anything to do with Spain,” he said on March 3.
Sanchez stood like a matador in front of this raging bull: “We have the necessary resources to contain the possible impact of the trade embargo by the US,” he said on Tuesday. EU leaders mostly cowered out of sight of the cameras. Mark Carney, where are you when we need you? (Unfortunately the leader of “the third path with impact” has now gone AWOL and is mumbling incoherently).
With daily destruction of US military bases across the Gulf, with Dubai, Doha and Riyadh in danger of being as attractive to business and travellers as Beirut (once dubbed the Paris of the Levant), with massive damage being rained down on Israel, there is a growing chorus of people asking: ‘What is the plan? What is the end game? What happens the day after?’
This all brings us back to the famous Onion headline: “FBI Uncovers Al-Qaeda Plot To Just Sit Back And Enjoy Collapse Of United States.” It would all be terribly funny if it were not so depraved, so cruel and so futile. Welcome to Pax Americana. Shalom, y’all.
Be the first to comment