16.11.2024
Can China rise peacefully, and can one great power surpass another without conflict? China’s rise is disrupting the international economic system, which has been based on US hegemony. This makes it difficult to avoid conflict unless the US is prepared to accept a more modest role in a multipolar world, as one of many great powers.
Ukraine has already lost the war, and the main question now is how it will end. NATO expansionism as an existential threat to Russia intensified the security competition and started the conflict in Ukraine. Russia’s non-negotiable demands in any peace settlement is therefore for Ukraine to restore its neutrality and accept territorial concessions. Such a humiliating defeat will be nearly impossible for Ukraine to accept as it is left with no security after such great suffering. Trump will want to end NATO’s costly war in Ukraine that pushes Russia into the arms of China, but he is unlikely to achieve the peace deal he wants. What happens then?
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