Getting caught up on the situation in the Middle East
Larry C. Johnson is a former CIA officer and intelligence analyst, and former planner and advisor at the US State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism. As an independent contractor, he has provided training for the US Military’s Special Operations community for 24 years. Today he runs the website Sonar21
Cross-posted from Sonar 21
Photo: Screen Grab
Despite the MoU stipulation that:
by signing this memorandum of understanding, declare an immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, and commit not to initiate any war or military operation against each other henceforth, to refrain from threats or use of force against each other, and to guarantee the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.
Israel, in another act of defiance against Donald Trump, unleashed a massive bombing attack on southern Lebanon on Thursday and Friday. Late on Thursday, Iran, using Pakistan as an intermediary, informed Washington that if Israel continued bombing Lebanon the MoU would be moot and Iran would take appropriate measures to deal with Israel. In making this vow — I don’t say threat because Iran has the full backing of Pakistan and China to carry out retribution against Israel — Iran made it clear to Donald Trump that there would be no further talks and that Iran would speak with missiles and drones.
As I write this, shortly before midnight on Friday, it is now morning in Lebanon and there are no reports of new Israeli airstrikes. The bulk of the bombing and fighting on Friday focused on a Hezbollah stronghold near the town of Nabatieh. Here’s the summary from GeoPolitics Prime:
At the heart of Ali al‑Taher hill, overlooking Nabatieh in southern Lebanon, lies a 1‑kilometer underground tunnel complex housing a command center and strategic weapons depots.
Known as the Imad‑4 facility, this Hezbollah fortress has become an obsession for the IDF.
What happened:
🌏 Israeli forces attempted a night incursion toward the base — the 6th failed attempt since the ceasefire began.
🌏 Hezbollah struck an IDF tank from the elite 52nd Brigade (home to Israel’s most advanced armor) roughly 300 meters from the base entrance.
🌏 4 soldiers killed, including Lt. Col. Ben Simhon, commander of the 52nd Battalion.
🌏 The tank remains unrecovered — a rare and humiliating occurrence. In 2006, the IDF would tow damaged vehicles immediately. Today, the battlefield conditions on Ali Taher hill make recovery impossible.
Why it matters:
🌏 Hezbollah used an advanced tactic: mounting a MILAN anti‑tank missile warhead on an FPV drone. This is a new evolution in their drone warfare.
🌏 The MILAN is an old French‑German ATGM, typically outdated — but as a drone payload, it’s a cost‑effective tank killer.
🌏 The hill is a no‑man’s‑land with minimal cover. Defense is conducted from surrounding positions — and Hezbollah is holding.
Israel’s northern push is not going to plan — and Hezbollah’s underground network is proving impenetrable.
By the time you read this we will have an inkling of whether or not Israel is going to follow Donald Trump’s orders or continue to tell him to, “Fuck off!” As I discussed in my previous piece, Trump has leverage over Israel because of the Zionist state’s dependence on US military and financial assistance. The question now is whether Trump is controlled by the Zionists or does he still possess a spine strong enough to resist the Zionist bullying?
There are press reports that Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Aragchi are headed to Switzerland… Looks like the meeting set for today (Friday) has been rescheduled and that negotiations over the remaining action items in the 14-point MoU will begin.
If Israel continues to launch strikes into Lebanon, Iran will retaliate forcefully using missiles and drones. While Israel will initially be inclined to engage in a tit-for-tat exchange with Iran, Iran’s capabilities without the full backing of the US are significantly reduced. Using the June 2025 12-day War as a benchmark, Israel will quickly weary of trying to fend off a continuous, heavy barrage of Iranian missiles and drones. Washington Post reporter John Hudson confirmed that JD Vance used Hudson’s original reporting (see the image the top of this article) in describing Israel’s dependence on US weapons:
Two-thirds of the defensive weapons that have protected your homeland have been built by American hands and paid for by American tax dollars,” Vance said. Indeed, the U.S. used half of its entire global inventory of THAAD interceptors to defend Israel…
One way to rein in Bibi Netanyahu is to threaten to withdraw all Patriot and THAAD interceptors that are still in Israel… I think that threat, given Israel’s vulnerability, will be enough to stop the Israeli violation of the ceasefire. We’ll see.
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