Larry C. Johnson is a former CIA officer and intelligence analyst, and former planner and advisor at the US State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism. As an independent contractor, he has provided training for the US Military’s Special Operations community for 24 years. Today he runs the website Sonar21

Cross-posted from Sonar 21

The proposed negotiations between Iran and the United States, tentatively scheduled for Friday, February 7, 2026, presents Donald Trump with the opportunity to achieve an agreement with Iran that he will portray as an amazing diplomatic victory. The talks will take place amid escalating tensions over Iran’s nuclear program and the US military buildup in the region. These talks, if they proceed, would mark the first direct high-level engagement between the two sides in months, following US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 (Operation Midnight Hammer) and recent US threats of further action.

The meetings are set to occur in Istanbul, Turkey, though some reports indicate a possible shift to Oman at Iran’s request. US representatives reportedly will include Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner (President Trump’s son-in-law and advisor). On the Iranian side, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi will lead, with possible involvement from other officials. Regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, and Oman may join or mediate, aiming to broaden the dialogue.

President Masoud Pezeshkian has endorsed equitable and fair negotiations without preconditions, and instructed diplomats to engage while emphasizing flexibility on issues like uranium enrichment. Iran views the talks as a way to de-escalate, but officials have stressed that US threats of military action undermine progress and does not alter Iran’s stated intention to conduct massive strikes against US bases and Israel if it is attacked again.

President Trump has expressed openness to a deal, but issued stark warnings stating that US warships are en route to the region and bad things could happen if negotiations fail. As I discussed in my last article, the naval force that Trump has dispatched to the Arabian Sea is weaker than the one that tried — and failed — to stop the Houthis from stopping ships bound for Israel in the Red Sea.

The US aims to revive elements of a nuclear accord. Previously, Trump also demanded that Iran eliminate its arsenal of ballistic missiles, end support for regional proxies, and protect the human rights of anti-government protestors in Iran. Iran has emphatically rejected those demands. Iran is prepared to make a deal that will allow international inspection of its nuclear processing sites and accept limits on enrichment of uranium.

Trump is in desperate need of a win, or at least something that can be portrayed as a diplomatic victory over Iran… He has suffered political damage from the recent killings of two anti-ICE protestors in Minnesota. As of early February 2026, recent national polls show his job approval rating hovering in the low-to-mid 40% range, with disapproval consistently in the mid-to-high 50% range. This represents a modest decline from late 2025 levels (around 45-47% approval), amid ongoing anti-ICE protests, criticism over the kidnapping of Venezuelan President Maduro, and a shaky economy.

The critical question is whether Trump will ignore pressure from the Zionists in Israel and the US to insist that Iran give up its ballistic missiles and end all support for groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, or will he be content with a nuclear deal that revives international inspections of Iran’s nuclear sites and assurances that Iran will no longer enrich uranium at levels that would permit it to produce fissile material capable of producing a nuclear warhead.

If Trump refuses to accept Iran’s terms then the likelihood of war increases, only this time Iran has the advantage. Iran has received significant military support from China and Russia, which includes air defense systems, new attack helicopters and intelligence about the locations of US military assets in the region. Assuming the Friday talks are not deadlocked, additional meetings will take place, which means the US assets deployed to the region will experience the stress of waiting for something to happen that may not happen. Another consideration that will impede the US ability to attack Iran is the planned joint-naval exercise that Iran will host with China and Russia during the first weeks of March — I am assuming that the talks continue through February. I don’t think Trump is crazy enough to start a war with Russian and Chinese warships in the area.