The Shoah was possible because no one could imagine Auschwitz. Reality overwhelms our imagination.
Emmanuel Todd is a French historian, anthropologist, demographer, sociologist and political scientist at the National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED) in Paris
Cross-posted from Emmanuel Todd’s Substack
Originally published in German by Die Weltwoche
Photo: White House – Photo Grab
Weltwoche: Mr Todd, the war in Ukraine is entering its fifth year. Looking back, are there any aspects that you misjudged?
Emmanuel Todd: I always have scruples and doubts. The prediction was correct: the West lost this war long ago. If the Americans had won, Joe Biden would have been re-elected. Donald Trump is the president of defeat. Today, there is another factor: the consequence of defeat is the disintegration of the West. This collapse of a civilisation – the Western civilisation – can be compared to the end of communism and the Soviet Union. It is still difficult to get a clear picture of how it will unfold. Its most spectacular symptom is a loss of touch with reality.
Weltwoche: When did you realise the significance of the war in Ukraine?
Todd: When I managed to determine the number of engineers in the United States and Russia. The American population is two and a half times larger than the Russian population, but America trains fewer engineers. John Mearsheimer, whom I admire, believes that Ukraine is of existential importance to Russia. That is undoubtedly true. But unlike Mearsheimer, I am convinced that Ukraine is even more important for the United States: the defeat of the US reveals the weakness of its system. It has a completely different significance than the defeats in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. The US loses, leaves chaos behind and withdraws. In Ukraine, it is waging war against its historical enemy since 1945. Losing that war is unimaginable.
Weltwoche: Donald Trump wanted to end it within 24 hours.
Todd: That was his sincere intention. Trump’s vulgarity and amorality are unbearable for a European bourgeois like me. But he also represents some perfectly reasonable concerns. The MAGA project, ‘Make America Great Again’, consists of representing the interests of the nation. After a year, Trump had to admit that despite protectionism with high tariffs, reindustrialisation is not working. There is a shortage of engineers, technicians and skilled workers. The proportion of illiterates among young people aged between 16 and 24 has risen from 17 to 25 per cent over the last ten years. America is dependent on imports; it cannot do without them. It was pure madness for the world’s leading power to outsource its industry to China. Even in agriculture, the foreign trade balance is in deficit. Tariffs have become a threat to the dollar. It is the weapon of an empire that lives on credit from the labour of other countries. The desolate state of American society makes it impossible to implement MAGA. It lacks the necessary economic and intellectual dynamism.
Weltwoche: And that’s why Trump has to wage war reluctantly?
Todd: That’s his dilemma. He has been caught up in the maelstrom of American foreign policy over the past decades. The US was concerned with expanding and strengthening its empire. Trump has not slowed down this development, but accelerated it. Joe Biden compensated for the decline of the empire with the war in Ukraine. Trump is multiplying the theatres of war. He sought a showdown with China, which brought him to his knees with its embargo on rare earths. He is threatening Canada and Cuba. He wants Greenland and is humiliating the Europeans. In Venezuela, the imperialism of an empire in its final stages manifested itself in the form of kidnapping and raiding. His customs policy is a form of blackmail. In virtually every area, he has achieved the opposite of what he set out to do.
Weltwoche: And all this because America can no longer win the war in Ukraine?
Todd: These are diversionary tactics. The result is that its enemies are joining forces to form an alliance: Iran, Russia, China. Trump has not reduced the US military engagement, but multiplied it to spectacular proportions. With their war cries and hostility towards Russia, the Europeans are partly responsible for this development.
Weltwoche: After the negotiations in Alaska, where Trump treated the European heads of state like schoolboys, Emmanuel Macron described Putin as a ‘child-eater’ and a ‘beast that needs to be fed’ in a chilling interview.
Todd: Trump benefits from this. America – the Biden administration – is responsible for the war in Ukraine, but Trump was able to present himself as a moderate and peace-loving negotiator. He is portrayed by the media as an almighty ruler of the world, which he is reorganising according to his will and delusions. And this at the very moment when America is suffering its first strategic defeat against Russia. Venezuela, Cuba, Greenland – these are all diversionary tactics. The aim is always to divert attention away from Ukraine to other locations. That is also the intention behind the negotiations. They only serve to buy time for all parties involved. The decision will be made on the battlefield, and Trump has realised that he cannot prevent Putin’s victory. Ukraine is facing the collapse of its entire system, as tragic and sad as that may be for the Ukrainian people.
Weltwoche: Is Iran also a diversionary tactic?
Todd: Yes. And it already began with Israel’s attack. For me, Israel is not an autonomous country that incites America to intervene in the Middle East. Israel is a satellite of America. Just like Ukraine. Israel does what Trump allows it to do. When he wanted a ceasefire in Gaza, he got it immediately. It was Israel that asked him for permission to end the Twelve-Day War. Netanyahu had to realise that the enemy was capable of producing far more rockets than had been assumed.
Weltwoche: You described the war in Ukraine as the beginning of a third world war.
Todd: The war in Ukraine is the beginning of a world war. One of the reasons for the Russians’ victory is their support from China and India. The BRICS countries are siding with the Russians against the West.
Weltwoche: And now we are facing a world war between the Americans and Russia and its allies Iran, China and India?
Todd: Russia, China and Iran are taking a defensive stance. At the moment, the focus is on an American attack on Tehran. No one knows what this will trigger. How will the regime react, and how will China and Russia respond?
Weltwoche: But in World War III, they will be allies against America?
Todd: In World War II, we had the Third Reich attacking everyone. Now the attacks are coming from the US. All of the allies are authoritarian regimes that are threatened by the crumbling American empire.
Weltwoche: What role do Europeans play? In one of our earlier conversations, you said that the Americans were actually waging war against Germany.
Todd: What we are currently experiencing is something that usually only happens in science fiction novels. The Western media system has become an empire of lies that is no longer capable of describing reality. Its axiom is: “Russia threatens Europe”. I think that’s nonsense. I believe Putin will annex part of Ukraine to Russia. After that, the Russians will stop the war. The conquest of Europe is simply impossible, and Putin is not interested in it either. In my book, I deal extensively with American nihilism, the decline of the churches and moral values. Today, I realise that I have underestimated European nihilism. Europe is no longer a union of equal states. It is dominated by Germany. I considered Olaf Schulz’s cautious policy to be reasonable. The election of Friedrich Merz as chancellor changed everything. It encouraged the US to relaunch the war against Russia. The CDU is the party of the Americans, and Merz has fuelled the Germans’ hostility towards Russia. The Chancellor is crafting a perverse synthesis out of Russophobia and the economic crisis caused by the war. He wants to overcome the crisis by militarising industry. That is the new German doctrine for Europe. And the secret service publishes warnings about a possible attack by Putin on Germany.
Weltwoche: Merz wants the strongest army in Europe. That brings back unpleasant memories, and not only in France.
Todd: To believe that this rearmament is directed solely against Russia is indeed a naïve mistake. For Russia, it poses a serious threat; for the Americans, it is a blessing. I can only explain this madness by the crisis in the EU. It is at an impasse and has replaced its original ideals with the enemy image of Putin. The West is by no means in the process of regaining its lost unity. The return to the nation is predominant in the USA and Europe. In Germany, the renaissance of national consciousness is less pronounced than in other EU states: it has gained control over Europe. I must resort to science fiction again: the war in Ukraine is over, Russia has achieved its goal. In this world without the Russian threat, nations are returning and Germany is once again a leading, self-confident power with the strongest army on the entire continent. Who will then be threatened?
Weltwoche: Like in the Second World War: all of Europe, including Russia, and especially France, the arch-enemy?
Todd: For Canada, it is not the Russians who pose a threat, but the United States. Yes, and for France, it is Germany. French politicians lack historical awareness. Relations between France and Germany have eased because we French no longer need to fear Germany.
Weltwoche: It was noticeable again during the reunification, which France wanted to prevent.
Todd: There is cause for concern. The collapse of the West is accompanied by a return to brutality and hierarchisation: people submit to those who are superior and beat up on those who are weaker. The Americans are doing this to the Europeans, and the Germans have swallowed it with the election of Friedrich Merz. They need a scapegoat. For now, it’s Putin. But Franco-German relations are deteriorating.
Weltwoche: Does Macron’s willingness to share the nuclear Force de Frappe with Germany indicate a desire for submission?
Todd: Merz makes very unpleasant comments about France. The war in Ukraine is leading to a global confrontation between the former colonies and the West that exploited them. And within the disintegrating West, old conflicts are resurfacing. Whatever happens in Iran, the defeat of the West and its civilisation is inevitable. Trump cannot stop his implosion; he is accelerating it. The Chinese and Russians are arming the mullahs, and the Americans have had to realise that one aircraft carrier is not enough. Nor are two. The regime in Tehran cannot back down, and Trump cannot refrain from attacking because he would then truly lose face – after promising the insurgents his help.
Weltwoche: He has backtracked in Greenland.
Todd: That was theatre; he won’t start a war against Denmark. The NSA monitors the whole of Europe from Denmark. Greenland is a sideshow of the apocalypse.
Weltwoche: You compared it to the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Todd: Back then, not a single shot was fired; the Russians accepted the end of their empire with great dignity.
Weltwoche: Ukraine gained its independence.
Todd: The Russians bid farewell to communism very elegantly. Their empire was not based on the exploitation of its satellites; they had self-tormented themselves with Stalinism. The period after the collapse was extremely difficult, and the Russians had centuries of totalitarian rule behind them. Compared to Russia, America and Europe are poor losers. Especially the Americans, whose history had been a tremendous success until then.
Weltwoche: Do you see the Americans playing the role of the Third Reich in World War III?
Todd: I am wary of comparisons with the 1930s. The situation is different. But of course there are similarities. For Trump, diplomacy is about spreading lies. When he talks about negotiations, you can be sure that war is coming. That’s how Hitler operated too.
Weltwoche: Trump has not yet started a war.
Todd: He has not sent in ground troops – because he lacks the power to do so: society does not accept casualties, and that is generally the case in the West. No one likes to wage war, not even Russia. Even Putin is cautious with his human resources; he has not embroiled his population in a total war. Trump will not send ground troops to Iran either. We are still at the stage of rhetoric and air strikes. The mullahs’ regime has been weakened by the uprising. Intensive bombing could trigger a civil war. It could cause chaos and trigger internal fighting. The war in Ukraine now seems to me like a civil war instigated by the Americans. Regime change in Iran is by no means in their interest. The mullahs are a terrible regime, but the mosques are empty. A nationalist government with the support of the population would be hardly less hostile to the US. As in the 1930s, we lack imagination today. The Shoah was possible because no one could imagine Auschwitz. Reality overwhelms our imagination.
Weltwoche: You’re probably right, and we should read more science fiction novels to understand the present. Politics is all about learning lessons from the past.
Todd: More than the past, we should indeed be concerned with the question of what could happen and what we cannot even imagine. The central question that preoccupies me, almost to the point of obsession, is: What is going on with the Germans? Americans want to be Americans and Russians want to remain Russians. The AfD is not comparable to the Rassemblement National. It is a party whose aggressiveness is frightening. At the same time, the German elite is becoming familiar with the idea of war. What will happen if the AfD and the CDU join forces? Will German nationalism then meet German militarism? Is Germany on the verge of becoming an authoritarian society again because this suits its temperament? These are things we need to think about today.
Weltwoche: Is there any hint of an answer?
Todd: All my failed prophecies concerned Germany: because I mistakenly thought that the Germans might be like the French after all. When Schröder and Chirac protested against the war in Iraq alongside Putin, I saw this as a welcome rapprochement and believed that Paris should share its seat on the United Nations Security Council with Berlin. I saw Germany as the leader of a sovereign Europe. My hopes were dashed. Germany immediately began to push through its own decisions without consulting its partners: from phasing out nuclear power to taking in refugees. Germany is partly responsible for the Maidan, as it presented Ukraine with a choice: Russia or Europe. Even in my book on Ukraine, in which I strongly criticise the United Kingdom, I spare Germany because I largely agreed with Olaf Scholz.
Weltwoche: Why can’t Germans become French?
Todd: As a demographer, I have studied the family structures of peasant society. They still shape political culture. In countries where brothers had equal rights, the idea of human equality prevailed. It was the prerequisite for universalist revolutions, such as those in France and Russia. Russia realised communism, which applied to everyone. In Germany, the revolution had no chance because brothers did not have equal rights. This explains its penchant for authoritarianism. In Germany, the idea of inequality among people and nations prevails; unlike Russia and China, it cannot imagine a multipolar world order. This immediately raises the question of why France, with its tradition of equality, does not side with the Russians: because it submits to German hegemony. Macron’s willingness to share the atomic bomb weakens national sovereignty. For Germany, only hierarchical relationships are conceivable. The Germans want to dominate Europe because it suits their temperament. After all, they are once again the strongest power.
Weltwoche: Once a Nazi, always a Nazi. You will be accused of systemic hostility towards Germany.
Todd: Not for the first time. My assessment is not an accusation, but an observation. I admire and acknowledge the superiority of the Germans in many areas of culture.
Weltwoche: You argue as an anthropologist. Is there a longing in the German subconscious for victory over Russia, for revenge for the Second World War?
Todd: I wouldn’t call it revenge. After the war and reunification, no one could have imagined how quickly Germany would overcome its challenges. That’s a compliment. This country is different; it has enormous potential. But of course the Germans know who defeated the Wehrmacht. The Russians’ aggressive rhetoric gives the impression that they are being cheated out of their victory. Denying Russia’s victory is tantamount to denying Germany’s defeat.
Weltwoche: After reunification, the collapse of the Soviet Union was also stylised as a victory for the West, and the Russians were denied recognition for freeing themselves from communism – something the Germans failed to achieve with Hitler.
Todd: The defeat of 1945 is dismissed as if it and National Socialism had never existed.
Weltwoche: At the same time, the Nazi past is omnipresent as a German obsession, and the AfD is being fought as if it were about resisting the Nazis. At home against Hitler, in Europe against Putin.
Todd: Are the Germans really so obsessed with Hitler? If so, there’s something in their subconscious that I haven’t seen. And that would mean: The risks are far greater than I ever imagined. We’re truly living in a science fiction novel. The elites have run out of explanations and plans. They cling to the EU, which makes any decision impossible and whose perception of reality is distorted. Germany rules Europe, but you’re not allowed to say that. We have a completely distorted view of the past that governs our present, and we can’t imagine a future. And if you don’t know where you’re headed, at least you can cling to Russophobia.
Weltwoche: Russophobia stemming from antifascism, with Putin playing the role of Hitler. There are efforts to ban the AfD.
Todd: I don’t know Germany well enough to comment on this. Sometimes I tell a joke, and it’s not funny. I don’t know, I’m uncertain… Yes, perhaps it really is like this: Germany is giving free rein to its authoritarian temperament. People are comparing the AfD to the National Rally, Marine Le Pen to Meloni and Putin, and Meloni to Trump. These comparisons are going in circles. What all these countries have in common is a return to the nation. Germans, too, want to be German again. This dynamic has gripped all parties: the SPD, the CDU, the AfD. The differences between the post-national ideologies are becoming less sharp. In America, there’s a rapprochement between the neoconservatives, who propagated war as a means of establishing democracy, and the MAGA movement, which wanted to stop it. In Germany, a merger of the CDU and the AfD is conceivable. And it is conceivable that the return to the authoritarian nation will this time masquerade as a fight for freedom and democracy.
Weltwoche: How do you assess the developments in France, whose politics have long been dominated by the fight against populists and neo-fascists, and where the radicalization of the left raises fears of a civil war between “anti-fascists” and “fascists”? Jean-Luc Mélenchon of “France Insoumise” has described next year’s election to succeed Macron as a “final stand.”
Todd: This opposition is paralyzing France. Not a single party wants to abolish the euro or leave the EU. Only a radical revolt can overcome this political impotence. We need a movement that recognizes our collective interests and leaves post-national ideologies behind. It’s nowhere in sight.
Weltwoche: Who will be the next president?
Todd: I don’t know, I’m not a prophet. Although I have that reputation.
Weltwoche: It was Osama bin Laden, the mastermind behind the attack on the Twin Towers, who spread it around the world. While fleeing the Americans at the beginning of the millennium, he quoted you as a prophet: after the end of the Soviet Union, the fall of the American empire. Who will you vote for?
Todd: I have no idea.
Weltwoche: Dominique de Villepin, who, as Foreign Minister under Jacques Chirac, led the campaign against the American invasion of Iraq?
Todd: He’s the only politician who can at least count on my sympathy.
Weltwoche: You wanted to tell another joke.
Todd: It’s about a concentration camp for Jews who are imprisoned and exterminated because they are anti-Semites.
Weltwoche: This idea doesn’t seem at all far-fetched to me, given the mental confusion and prevailing rhetoric you’ve described. But let’s stay in the realm of science fiction: Will it be not Russia, but the “strongest army in Europe” that attacks France?
Todd: No, I don’t think so, at least not in the medium term. Germany isn’t capable of that; we have the atomic bomb. The journalists and politicians have forgotten that de Gaulle built it to protect us from the Germans. If they become even more enraged against Russia, it could force Putin to use tactical nuclear weapons. I can only hope that the Russian missiles aren’t aimed at Dassault, but rather at Rheinmetall’s factories.
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