Two recent developments in the unprovoked Israel/US war of aggression against Iran
Larry C. Johnson is a former CIA officer and intelligence analyst, and former planner and advisor at the US State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism. As an independent contractor, he has provided training for the US Military’s Special Operations community for 24 years. Today he runs the website Sonar21
Cross-posted from Sonar 21
Joe Kent’s interview with Tucker tonight was quite revealing. Joe went out of his way to praise Donald Trump — a wise strategy when dealing with a toxic narcissist — and tamped down his anger over the attacks being hurled at him by Trump loyalists That said, Joe demonstrated a woeful ignorance about the history of the region, especially with respect to Iran. He described much of his combat experience as “fighting against Iranian proxies,” apparently buying into the nonsense that groups like ISIS and Al Qaeda and Al Nusra were supported by Iran. While Joe served with four different elite units in the US Army and the CIA, I know from personal experience that most of the soldiers serving in those units didn’t know the difference between Sunni and Shia muslims.
The most surprising comments from Joe concerned the petro dollar. He was quite clear that the preferred outcome for the United States in reaching a negotiated settlement with Iran would be a demand that Iran eschew BRICS and sell oil and gas only with petro dollars. There you have it… It is all about the money.
While I strongly disagree with Joe on his views about the Iranians vice the Gulf Arabs, I admire his bravery and integrity in resigning over this needless, senseless war. He knows the war with Iran does not serve US national interests and has taken a stand that has made him a target of the vindictive pricks that control the Deep State.
I awakened Wednesday morning to the awful news that Israel, with US support, had bombed Iran’s oil fields. As promised, Iran wasted no time in retaliating. Iran issued an EVACUATION order for petrochemical facilities in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, and then proceeded to set them on fire. Here are the specific targets:
⚠Samref Refinery – Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
⚠Al-Hasan Gas Field – United Arab Emirates
⚠Jubail Petrochemical Complex – Jubail, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
⚠ Mesaieed Petrochemical Complex and Mesaieed Holding Company (affiliated with Chevron) – Qatar
Apart from ensuring that the shortage of Persian Gulf oil will continue for several months — if not longer — which will cause a global recession, the Gulf arabs are going to take a major hit. One of the most vulnerable is the United Arab Emirates. In terms of losing the ability to export oil, UAE is not totally dependent on oil. As of early 2026 (with data reflecting 2025 figures and projections), the United Arab Emirates’ economy is dependent on oil and natural gas (hydrocarbons) for approximately 22–25% of its total GDP. Good news, right? Wrong.
On the surface, the UAE has one of the most successful diversification stories in the Gulf, with non-oil growth often outpacing hydrocarbons (e.g., non-oil GDP grew ~4.9–5.5% in 2025 projections, vs. hydrocarbon growth tied to OPEC+ output). But this diversification is largely in the Services sector, and that is where the UAE’s troubles begin. As of early to mid-2026 (based on the latest available data from 2025 full-year estimates and Q1 2025 figures, with projections holding steady), the services sector accounts for approximately 50–58% of the UAE’s total GDP. That sector consists of the following:
Wholesale and Retail Trade: Often the largest single contributor within non-oil/services (around 15–16% of non-oil output or a significant share of total GDP). This includes re-exports, e-commerce, and domestic retail, bolstered by Dubai’s role as a global trade hub.
Financial and Insurance Services: A high-growth area (e.g., 9% expansion in recent quarters), including banking, fintech, insurance, and wealth management. Abu Dhabi and Dubai are emerging as major financial centers, with strong capital inflows and digital finance adoption.
Real Estate Activities: Robust growth (e.g., 7–8% in recent periods), driven by residential/commercial development, mega-projects, population inflows, and investor-friendly policies. This includes property transactions, development, and related services.
Tourism and Hospitality: A major driver, fueled by Dubai and Abu Dhabi’s attractions (e.g., Expo legacy, events, luxury travel). Tourism supports hotels, aviation, entertainment, and related retail—contributing significantly to non-oil momentum despite occasional war-related disruptions.
Construction: Frequently grouped with services in UAE reporting (though sometimes classified separately), it has seen strong expansion (e.g., 8–9%) from infrastructure projects, housing, and commercial builds.
Transport, Storage, and Logistics: Key for Dubai’s ports/airports (e.g., Jebel Ali, DXB), re-exports, and supply chains—vital amid global trade rerouting. Other Professional and Business Services: Including ICT (information and communication technology), professional consulting, education, healthcare, and government services.
With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s continued missile strikes on oil and maritime infrastructure, it is highly likely that economic activity in each of those sectors is crashing. Wholesale and Retail Trade and Transport, Storage, and Logistics are frozen. There will be no economic growth in those sectors unless the UAE negotiates a deal with Iran which, as of this writing, is highly unlikely. Tourism and Hospitality, Financial and Insurance Services and Real Estate Activities also have been dramatically curtailed, if not halted, as a result of the war. That leaves Construction… Is there a sane real estate investor who is going to spend millions of dollars to build luxury condos or business towers when the wealthy global elite who had flocked to Dubai are fleeing the country? I don’t think so.
In other words, at least 75% of the UAE economy (it could be as high as 83%) is now stalled or frozen, with no immediate relief in sight. Unless there is a solid agreement with Iran that ensures there will be no future attacks on Iran, there is little chance that the UAE will return to its former glory of explosive growth.
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