An update on what has been occurring in Iran
Larry C. Johnson is a former CIA officer and intelligence analyst, and former planner and advisor at the US State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism. As an independent contractor, he has provided training for the US Military’s Special Operations community for 24 years. Today he runs the website Sonar21
Cross-posted from Sonar 21
Photo: Television screen grab
Despite enormous political pressure in the US, coupled with Donald Trump’s own bombastic rhetoric, the anticipated Wednesday attack on Iran was called off at the last minute. According to media reports, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey refused to give the US clearance to use their air space to launch the attack on Iran. There also are reports that Russia played a behind the scenes role in securing guarantees that Israel and Iran would not attack each other.
But I think there is another reason… The joint-CIA/Mossad operation to destabilize the Iranian government and military, which was launched on December 28, had failed. If the attempted color revolution had succeeded in weakening government control I believe that Trump and Netanyahu had calculated that the planned attack on Wednesday would have been sufficient to force the Ayatollah to flee to Moscow. In fact, the scenario of the Ayatollah giving up was widely touted in the Western press.
Here is what I believe happened… This attempt at regime change started with an economic attack. Iran’s currency, the rial, experienced a dramatic plunge on December 28, 2025, hitting a record low of approximately 1.42–1.45 million rials per US dollar on the open (parallel) market in Tehran. This sharp depreciation — part of a broader collapse that saw the rial lose nearly half its value over 2025 — triggered immediate economic chaos, shop closures, and the outbreak of nationwide protests that quickly escalated into anti-government demonstrations.
This collapse in the rial came one day before Trump met with Bibi Netanyahu in West Palm, Florida. I don’t believe in coincidence. The conventional explanation is that he crash accelerated rapidly in late December due to a combination of policy decisions and panic, which included the following:
Change in currency regulations for importers — In December 2025, the government eliminated preferential (subsidized) exchange rates for many essential imports, forcing businesses to buy foreign currency at the much higher open-market rate. This removed a key support mechanism, increased import costs dramatically, and fueled expectations of further devaluation.
Panic buying and capital flight — As the rial weakened, ordinary Iranians, merchants, and businesses rushed to convert savings into US dollars, gold, or goods. This created a self-reinforcing spiral: massive selling pressure on the rial, depleted central bank reserves to defend it, and eroded public confidence. Authorities’ initial silence only deepened the panic.
Shopkeeper protests as the spark — On December 28, electronics and mobile phone traders in central Tehran (e.g., around Hafez Street, Iran Mobile Center, and Alaeddin Mall) shut their doors in protest against the volatility and rising costs. This bazaar-led action — historically significant in Iranian politics — quickly spread, with iron market traders and others joining, chanting anti-government slogans.
But the conventional wisdom ignores the power of outside actors. Consider what one man was able to do to one of the world’s major economies. George Soros, through his hedge fund Quantum Fund, became legendary for large-scale speculative bets on currencies, particularly when he identified overvalued or unsustainable exchange rate regimes. These trades often involved short-selling (betting against) a currency, profiting if it devalued or a peg broke. Soros earned the nickname, the man who broke the Bank of England, when he built a massive short position of about $10 billion against the pound (borrowing and selling pounds, expecting to buy them back cheaper after devaluation). On Black Wednesday, speculative pressure (led by Soros and others) overwhelmed the Bank of England. Despite raising interest rates dramatically (to 15%) and spending billions in reserves, the UK exited the ERM. The pound fell sharply (15–20% against major currencies).
If Soros could do this to England, do you think it is impossible for the US, with the help of some allies, to crash Iran’s currency? We got to give some credit to Western intelligence, who correctly calculated that this economic shock would incite protests. The CIA and Mossad had deployed Starlink terminals throughout Iran among dissident groups in order to generate propaganda images and reports that would convince Western populations that Iran was on the brink of collapse, and to coordinate activities. Western intelligence also provided cash and weapons to groups scattered across Iran with express orders to attack Iranian police and security services… Create enough chaos and then, with well placed military strikes, hopefully collapse the Iranian government.
The plan was disrupted starting Friday, January 9, when Iran’s various security services launched counter attacks against the violent agitators. Iran’s intelligence service — most likely with assistance from Russia and China — uncovered and destroyed the Starlink network’s effectiveness. Iran’s success in shutting down the internet across the country, coupled with Electronic Warfare assistance from Russia, enabled Iran to identify and arrest (or kill) those individuals cooperating with the CIA and/or Mossad.
This failure does not mean that the US and Israel are giving up on their desire to eliminate the Islamic Republic. A US carrier Task Force is still enroute to the Persian Gulf. As long as the US continues to build up military assets in the region, the plan to attack Iran remains viable.
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