John Mearsheimer, Alexander Mercouris, Glenn Diesen – How will US political upheaval influence Ukraine?

26 July 2024

I had a discussion with Professor John Mearsheimer and Alexander Mercouris on the Duran about how the political upheaval in the US will influence the Ukraine War.

Kamala Harris will likely continue the policies of Joe Biden, and her inexperience with foreign policy suggests she will dutifully represent the consensus of the elites in the Democratic Party. However, a new presidency does allow for a policy shift at a time when NATO is losing its proxy war in Ukraine. Furthermore, Biden has personally been deeply involved in the Ukraine War since the coup in 2014, the US development of extensive administrative control over the post-coup government in Ukraine, the rejection and sabotage of peace agreements, and managing the war since 2022.

On the Republican side, Trump’s selection of Vance as his Vice President is a clear signal that he wants an end to the war through negotiations. Trump is renowned for wanting a return on investment in his foreign policy as allies should pay the US for protection rather than transfer productive capabilities to allies in regional arrangements such as NAFTA and the TPP. Trump and Vance recognise that the proxy war in Ukraine has been lost, and that Ukraine is a huge cost with little chance of a victory that would deliver a great payout in terms of controlling its natural resources. As Trump told Zelensky, they are fighting the Russian military giant that defeated both Napoleon and Hitler. The big question remains what Trump would be willing to offer in a peace agreement, as Russia demands restoring Ukraine’s neutrality and recognition of the territories Russia has annexed. This could be a difficult sell to Trump who prides himself on being a great deal-maker.

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