Some insights into the protests in Iran
Larry C. Johnson is a former CIA officer and intelligence analyst, and former planner and advisor at the US State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism. As an independent contractor, he has provided training for the US Military’s Special Operations community for 24 years. Today he runs the website Sonar21
Cross-posted from Sonar 21
Photo: Screengrab Twitter
Western media, especially those outlets firmly aligned with the neoconservative view, are quick to jump on reports of protests in Iran as a sign that the Islamic Republic of Iran is about to implode. Events today in Iran provided another spurt of arousal among neocons longing to bring back the Shah and eliminate the mullahs. Here’s a summary of the various news reports:
On December 30, 2025, protests in Iran entered their third day, spreading from initial economic grievances in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar to universities and multiple cities across the country. Triggered by the Iranian rial plunging to record lows (around 1.38–1.42 million to the USD) and inflation hitting 42.2–42.5%, demonstrations began with shopkeepers and merchants striking and closing businesses, evolving into broader anti-government chants.
Protests expanded beyond Tehran to cities including Isfahan, Shiraz, Mashhad, Hamadan, Karaj, Qeshm, Malard, Kermanshah, and Yazd. University students joined on Tuesday, chanting slogans like “Death to the dictator” (referring to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei), calls for freedom, and pro-monarchy references (e.g., “Long live the Shah” or “Rest in peace Reza Shah”).
President Masoud Pezeshkian acknowledged “legitimate demands,” instructed the interior ministry to dialogue with protest representatives, and pledged economic reforms. The central bank governor resigned, replaced by Abdolnasser Hemmati. Officials offered talks but warned against escalation or foreign exploitation.
Hmmm… What’s really going on? Turns out that Nima Alkorshid, the host of Dialogue Works, is on an extended family vacation in Tehran. It has been 12 years since he was last in Iran. I know one thing for certain… His mom is thrilled to have her son, his wife and her grandchildren in Tehran. Anyway, I called Nima and asked him what he was seeing.
According to Nima, there is frustration with the government, i.e., Pezeshkian, over the high inflation and that is one impetus driving the protests. However, it is not directed at the Islamic regime despite Western press reports claiming otherwise. Nima also pointed out that about 25% of the population is quite conservatie (these are the folks who supported Ahmadinejad) and they are angry with Pezeshkian because he is viewed as too accommodating of the West. These folks, while miffed at the government, are staunch supporters of the Ayatollah Khameni.
There is video evidence corroborating Nima’s observations. In one clip an Iranian student protester explains the reasoning behind the demonstrations, stating that they are not opposed to the Islamic Republic, but rather to corruption among government officials who are worsening the economic crisis. He says:
This is the voice of an Iranian Basiji. I would sacrifice myself for this homeland. I would give my life for the Islamic Republic. Our protest is against people like Ali Ansari and other corrupt officials. Mr. Ejei [Chief of the Judiciary], where are you?
I was pleasantly surprised by Pezeshkian’s reaction to the protests… Instead of beating the hell out of the protestors and tossing them into prison, he acknowledged the legitimacy of their complaints and fired the central bank governor while promising economic reforms. Seems like a pretty reasonable response to me.
I believe that Russia and China — who have denounced and rejected Europe’s attempt to reimpose economic sanctions on Iran — are working on measures to boost the Iranian economy and get inflation under control. While there is no denying that Iran’s economy has been badly damaged because of Western sanctions — which both Russia and China supported in 2015 as part of the JCPOA — Iran, by virtue of is membership in BRICS and closer economic, political and military ties with Russia and China, is in a stronger position now to revive the economy.
Russia’s economic support focuses on strategic partnerships and trade, and is often intertwined with military cooperation. In January 2025, Russia and Iran signed a 20-year comprehensive strategic partnership treaty, including provisions for economic cooperation. Russia also is providing advanced conventional weapons (e.g., fighter aircraft, attack helicopters) in exchange for Iranian drones, missiles, and ammunition, indirectly bolstering Iran’s economy through barter-like military trade.
Along with the economic cooperation, there have been five visits by four senior Iranian officials to Moscow since July 1, 2025, based on reported trips. These include political, military, and economic figures, with purposes ranging from nuclear discussions to military cooperation and strategic partnerships:
Ali Larijani (Supreme Leader Adviser, political) – July 20, 2025: Discussed nuclear negotiations and bilateral relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Brigadier General Aziz Nasir Zadeh (Defense Minister, military) – July 21, 2025: Met with Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov to expand military cooperation, likely seeking assistance post-Israel-Iran conflict.
Abbas Araghchi (Foreign Minister, political) – August 2025: Sought Russian support in the aftermath of U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iranian infrastructure following the ceasefire announcement. He made a second visit on December 17, 2025, to sign a foreign ministry cooperation plan for 2026-2028 and hail expanding partnerships.
Mohammad Reza Aref (First Vice President, political/economic) – November 17-18, 2025: Attended the SCO Council of Heads of Government meeting and held bilateral talks with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin on economic and political cooperation.
But that is not all… there is the North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). There have been multiple bilateral and multilateral meetings/discussions between Russia and Iran (often including Azerbaijan) since July 1, 2025, focused on advancing the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a multimodal trade route linking Russia, Iran, India, and beyond. Here are the key meetings in 2025:
October 2025: Trilateral talks in Baku (Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran) on expanding the western route of the INSTC, including infrastructure inspections and agreements on logistics/cross-border efficiency.
November 2025: Railway executives from Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan signed a memorandum in Baku to enhance the western route’s competitiveness (e.g., fixed pricing, unified rates).
December 12, 2025: Presidents Vladimir Putin and Masoud Pezeshkian discussed INSTC progress (including the Rasht-Astara railway) during a meeting in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan.
December 16, 2025: High-level talks in Tehran between Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani and Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister for Transport Vitaly Savelyev, emphasizing fast-tracking the corridor and removing obstacles.
And then there is China. China offers more substantial economic lifelines, mainly through oil trade and pledged investments, positioning itself as Iran’s largest trading partner. China purchases 90% (or nearly all) of Iran’s exported oil at discounted prices (as low as $14 per barrel below market), providing crucial revenue—estimated at $67 billion for the Iranian year ending March 2025 (15% of GDP). This accounts for 13.6% of China’s oil imports and funds 45% of Iran’s 2025–2026 government budget. Under the 2021 25-year comprehensive strategic partnership (reaffirmed in September 2025), China pledged $400 billion in investments for sectors like oil/gas, infrastructure, banking, telecom, ports, railways, and tourism. Infrastructure initiatives include a new railway for overland oil shipments (opened May 2025 but halted by war) and the first freight train from Xi’an to Iran’s Aprin dry port in May 2025. Discussions on economic corridors via Central Asia (e.g., May 2025 railway officials meeting) aim to enhance transit.
At least 3 senior Iranian officials (political and military) have visited China since July 1, 2025, based on publicly reported trips. These visits focused on multilateral summits (e.g., Shanghai Cooperation Organization events), bilateral cooperation, and post-conflict diplomacy following Iran’s tensions with Israel and the US:
Abbas Araghchi (Foreign Minister, political) — July 2025: Attended an SCO foreign ministers’ meeting in Tianjin and held bilateral talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on deepening ties and regional issues.
Masoud Pezeshkian (President, political) — September 1–2, 2025: Visited Beijing for the SCO Summit; met with President Xi Jinping to discuss comprehensive strategic partnership, trade, investment, and global governance.
Aziz Nasirzadeh (Defense Minister, military) — Late June 2025 (close to July threshold, often grouped in post-July reporting): Attended SCO defense ministers’ meeting in Qingdao; first reported foreign trip post-Israel conflict.
Iran’s efforts to resurrect a sound economy are being carried out under the shadow of renewed attacks by Israel and the United States. According to RT:
President Donald Trump warned the US could carry out further military strikes against Iran if it attempts to rebuild its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. He made the remarks to journalists alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida on Monday.
“If it’s confirmed, they know the consequences, and the consequences will be very powerful, maybe more powerful than the last time,” Trump said on Monday. “We’ll knock them down. We’ll knock the hell out of them. But hopefully that’s not happening.”
The US president indicated he would “absolutely” support Israeli military action against Iran’s missile program, saying the US would act “immediately” against any nuclear advances.
Rebuild ballistic missile programs? Looks like Donald Trump has not been informed that Iran’s ballistic missile programs were not destroyed during the 12-day war. Iran is not rebuilding… It is expanding and modernizing its ballistic missile force, which is safely stored below ground out of the reach of Israeli and US weapons. If Israel and Trump are foolish enough to attack Iran again, I think they will find Iran is a far more formidable and dangerous foe than the one they encountered in June 2025.
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