We felt it was important to reproduce this twiter thread concerning current events in the Sahel as it is the only thing that has crediblity and a sharp analysis. Being a thread it is in short paragraphs as that is all that twitter allows.
Why are coups making a comeback in Africa? | CNNIn just over a year, Africa has experienced three successful coups (two in Mali and one more recently in Guinea), one unsuccessful coup attempt in Niger, and an arbitrary military transfer of power…
With the military coups observed in some of the 55 countries of the #African continent, speculations and grandiose statements abound. Most commentators talk about a “return” of coups and #democracy in “retreat”.
This mainstream account (shared by many Africans) is false. Because it does not have the basic facts right. Any investigation should start by having basic facts and concepts right.
Unfortunately, in the case of Africa, this is always too much a demand. That’s why incapacitating clichés and myths abound.
This mainstream account (shared by many Africans) is false. Because it does not have the basic facts right. Any investigation should start by having basic facts and concepts right.
Unfortunately, in the case of Africa, this is always too much a demand. That’s why incapacitating clichés and myths abound.
‘Successful’ coups (i.e. government overthrow) reached their peak in the African continent during the 1970-9 and 90-9 periods (36 for each). They declined Iin the following decades; 8 between 2020-2022. See: https://clinecenter.illinois.edu/project/resear
Most of the African countries have been coups ‘free’ since the 1990s while less than a third NEVER experienced a ‘successful’ coup since their independence (something NEVER acknowledged).
Given that the recent coups have been happening in the same countries in the #Sahel, it is wrong to talk about the “return” of coups for the WHOLE continent.
But guess what? All countries where coups were observed since 2020 are former French colonies, except for Sudan: Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea and recently Niger.
If you look at the map, you see that the coups are geographically located in the “Sahelian” band.
frontiersin.org African coups in the COVID-19 era: A current history
What explains the explosion of coup activity in Africa over the last few years? To answer this question, this article presents narrative
Let’s leave aside the #Tunisian case (a former French protectorate); some people talk about a coup there.
shs.hal.science La Tunisie en 2021 : un coup politique peut masquer un coup d’État
La lecture des définitions fournies par la plupart des dictionnaires et lexiques de science politique ou de droit ne laisse guère de droit
There are currently two strong determinants of ‘successful coups’ in Africa: being a former #French #colony and being in a zone militarized by foreign powers.
Recent coups do indicate no particular trend about the political “health” of the continent but they reveal a reality people are loathe to acknowledge: the crisis of French #imperialism
Coups in Francophone Africa reveal attempts by some countries to delink from France’s grip (#Mali, #Burkina) as well as attempts by France to maintain its influence (the coup in #Chad was backed afterwards by France and created no particular issue for the #West).
The crisis of French #imperialism is also visible in the highly repressive character of French-speaking African countries that are portrayed as “#democracies” – i.e. “loyal” to Western interests – and which suppress violently internal dissent and the opposition.
So, it is not a surprise that some of the coups have been reaction to despotic excesses – such as in #Guinea when the incumbent president was overthrown after he allowed himself a “third term” using constitutional manipulations.
#Niger is being described as a country with a “democratic” tradition. In 1996, French officials were “happy” with the military coup by I.B. Maïnassara. When the latter was killed during a new coup, they lamented a “democratic setback”.
That Francophone Africa is afflicted with coups is not a new phenomenon. This is structural. In a book chapter I wrote in 2015, I gave the following assessment:
“At present, coup attempts as a mode of political regulation in sub-Saharan Africa survive mainly in French-speaking countries, including those in the franc zone […] They have always been a costly stopgap in terms of human lives.”
I produced the following table: 78 coups attempts in the CFA countries between 1960 and 2012, 38% of total coups attempts and 58% of successful coups after 2000.
To quote: NSS, « Emerger avec le Franc CFA ou Emerger du Franc CFA ? », in K. Nubukpo, B. Tinel, M. B. Zelinga, D.M. Dembélé (éd.), Sortir de la servitude monétaire : à qui profite le Franc CFA ?, Les éditions La Dispute, Paris, 2016, p.186.
Needless to repeat that the imposition of the #CFA #franc has blocked African economic development. Take Ivory Coast, the biggest CFA franc using economy. Its inhabitants are poorer now than they were in 1978.
Take Niger. It recorded its best level of real GDP per capita in 1965. Its current real GDP per capita is 59% lower than this pic performance. (Data come from the World Bank development indicators, checked today).
Few correlate Niger’s economic and political woes with the overvalued and harmful CFA franc. For an exception, see the book below.
Next to poor economic performance on the long run, these countries have known no autonomous institutional development (including of the “authoritarian but developmental” cast found in some places across the world).
It is time for people to stop generalizing to a whole continent an issue affecting mostly French-speaking countries under #neocolonialism. To end ‘successful’ coups in “Africa”, maybe it is time to start thinking about ending the CFA franc and foreign military interventions.
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