A good assessment of the current stand-off in the Iran war
Larry C. Johnson is a former CIA officer and intelligence analyst, and former planner and advisor at the US State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism. As an independent contractor, he has provided training for the US Military’s Special Operations community for 24 years. Today he runs the website Sonar21
Cross-posted from Sonar 21
As I pointed out in my last article, someone in the Trump administration who has been briefed on Trump’s upcoming statements about the war in Iran made a financial killing yesterday. This is part of a continuing pattern of deliberate deception by Trump, i.e., pretending there is great progress with talks with Iran, which in turn produces a boost in the US stock market and a decline in the futures price of oil. Here is the reality: There will be no negotiated end to the war with Iran in the next six months because the US narrative and the Iranian narrative cannot be reconciled.
Let’s start with the US position or narrative… Iran is an irredeemable Islamic terrorist state that is teetering on the edge of collapse. Iran’s political and military leaders are deeply divided. Iran’s economy has no way to recover as long as the war goes on. Iran’s military capabilities have been decimated. Iran must cease enriching uranium and must allow complete, unhindered inspections of its nuclear facilities. This is what the overwhelming majority of Trump advisors and US political pundits believe.
Iranian leaders are equally firm… Iran will only agree to a negotiated settlement to end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz if Israel agrees to a complete ceasefire in Lebanon and Gaza. The Strait of Hormuz will remain under Iran’s control and that they would never relinquish control of the SOH. On May 5, 2026, Iran launched a new body called the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), requiring all ships wishing to cross the Strait of Hormuz to register, fill out forms, and pay a toll before receiving a transit permit. Iran will never give up its supply of enriched uranium and, as a sovereign nation and signatory to the NPT, will exercise its right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. Iran will continue to support the Palestinian people and their quest for freedom and self-rule and will continue to provide assistance to Hezbollah. Finally, Iran will not compromise on its right to build ballistic missiles.
This, boys and girls, is called an impasse. The US position rests on a number of false assumptions. First, Iran is not the leading sponsor of terrorism and has not been engaged in plots to destabilize it Gulf Arab neighbors. Second, there is no rift between the political leaders of Iran and the IRGC… the President, the Foreign Minister, the Head of the Iranian legislature and the Ayatollah all fought and served with the IRGC during the war with Iraq. Third, Iran’s economy is beginning to revive thanks to support from Russia, China and Pakistan and from the high price of oil. Fourth, notwithstanding Trump’s claims to the contrary, the Iranian navy, air force and ballistic missile, cruise missile and drones are intact and able to continue exchanging blows with the US and Israel.
Donald Trump faces several dilemmas… The US economy is beginning to falter with growing public anger over the surging price of gasoline. There are no viable military options to effect a regime change in Iran or to compel Iran to agree to US demands. The US supplies of critical weapons systems will be further depleted if the US renews its aerial and missile attacks on Iran, and Iranian retaliation on US and Israeli targets will inflict significant damage. As long as the US continues to attack Iran, its relations with Russia and China will deteriorate.
The real threat to the US is not military, it is economic. The continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran confronts the world with an unprecedented economic threat. US attempts to block this will only worsen what will become a global economic catastrophe.
| Commodity | Approx. Persian Gulf Share of Global Production (2025) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Oil (crude & condensate) | ~32% (Middle East/Persian Gulf region) | Core producers (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, UAE, Kuwait) dominate; accounts for roughly one-third of global supply. |
| LNG | ~20% (mainly Qatar; Gulf total ~20–22%) | Qatar is the dominant Gulf producer and one of the world’s top LNG exporters. |
| Urea | Substantial (Gulf ~36% of global exports; production share lower but still major) | Gulf states (Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia) are the world’s largest urea-exporting region. |
| Sulfur | 44% of global sulfur production | Sulfur’sapplications span: phosphate fertilizer production (60–70% of global sulfuric acid demand), metal ore processing (copper, nickel, cobalt leaching), petroleum refining, semiconductor wafer cleaning (used by TSMC, Intel, and Samsung), battery manufacturing, and pharmaceuticals. |
| Helium | ~33% (mainly Qatar) | Qatar is the world’s second-largest producer after the U.S. |
| Aluminum (primary) | ~8–9% (GCC/Middle East smelters) | UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar are key producers outside China. |
Iran is pursuing diplomatic contacts with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait to restore the export of these commodities to the world under Iran’s PGSA. If Qatar and Saudi Arabia cut a deal with Iran, the US influence in the region will be castrated. If there is a global financial crisis accompanied by a major recession, if not depression, then the US will be under enormous pressure to make a deal with Iran that will restore international trade and shipments from the Persian Gulf. Iran holds the ultimate trump card… Trump holds none.
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