Turkey is moving into the Sahel region, while the United States and France are being forced out.
Mehmet Ozkan is Professor of international relations at Turkish National Defence University in Istanbul.
Cross-posted from Middle East Eye
Earlier this month, a Turkish delegation comprising the foreign, defence, energy and deputy trade ministers, alongside the country’s intelligence chief, visited Niger. It was a follow-up to the visit of Nigerien Prime Minister Ali Lamine Zeine to Ankara two months ago.
The two states signed a declaration to encourage Turkish companies to invest in oil and natural gas fields in Niger, and discussed ways to enhance cooperation between the two countries in defence and intelligence.
What does Turkey’s involvement in Niger mean for the region and beyond, given that Niger’s military junta has ordered the United States to withdraw its military personnel from the country and kicked out France?
This visit is likely to mark a turning point in Turkey-West Africa relations. Ankara has long shown interest in West Africa, but until recently, it was relatively cautious.
Turkey’s military cooperation with West African and Sahel countries previously aimed to secure their support in solving the Libya crisis. Several years ago, Turkey pledged $5m to reinforce the regional fight against terrorism.
Military cooperation with several West African countries existed at different levels, including military training. Turkey signed military cooperation agreements with Niger in 2020, Togo in 2021 and Senegal in 2022. These developments marked the start of a new era in Ankara’s security relations with West Africa.
But Ankara’s soft and hard power strategies centred on strengthening bilateral ties and closely following regional developments. As with Turkey’s experience in East Africa, however, Ankara now sees West Africa as an opportunity to dominate and shape developments.
Reliable partner
Until recently, Ankara appeared to be competing with international partners who were already present in the region. Turkey’s rivalry with France over Libya, alongside the crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean, heightened tensions between Paris and Ankara, making even European partners reluctant to collaborate with Turkey in Africa.
This period is now over. Ankara is seen as a potential reliable partner for West African countries in crisis.
Its primary focus now is Niger. Ankara’s strategic approach to Africa is to focus on one country comprehensively, and then exert influence over the region as a whole. It has done so in Somalia and East Africa, becoming a key player and mediator in regional crises.
Turkey’s Niger initiative is multidimensional, spanning the economic, security, defence and energy sectors, which could contribute to ending Niger’s international isolation. Niger sees Turkey as a way out, as Somalia did previously.
Ankara’s strong presence in the region, and specifically in Niger, also holds potential for the recovery of the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas), which has long been an ambitious and relatively successful actor in West Africa’s political and security spheres.
Indeed, Ecowas was on its way towards setting an example of an influential grouping for the continent’s other regional organisations. But this stalled in recent days with the establishment of a new alliance among several coup-hit countries, including Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali.
While this poses an existential threat to Ecowas, Turkey’s good relations with all countries in the bloc may help to facilitate reintegration of the latter three.
Mediation efforts
In addition, as a top diplomat from the region told me, many West Africans believe that it is better to have Turkish soldiers on the ground than Russian forces, in light of Ankara’s security and military ties with the West.
Furthermore, Turkey’s candid, cordial and forward-looking mediation efforts, which have been visible recently in East Africa via Turkey’s role in Somali-Ethiopian talks, could potentially be replicated in West Africa, considering its favourable relations with countries across the region.
While Russia has also shown an interest in influencing developments in the Sahel region, especially since the military coups in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, Moscow remains preoccupied with the war in Ukraine – and the future of Russian influence through the Wagner Group in Africa is uncertain.
The case of Turkey demonstrates how a country with midsized economic and political power can establish itself as a significant player in a faraway region to influence developments.
As global turbulence and regional conflicts paralyse states across Africa, other countries would do well to take lessons from Ankara’s visionary, inclusive and rapid-response policies towards West Africa, in an effort to diversify their own partnerships with newly rising powers.
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