Wolfgang Knorr – Global crises and the end of democracy

The radical changes we need to face

Wolfgang Knorr is a climate scientist, consultant for the European Space Agency and guest researcher at the Department of Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University

Cross-posted from Wolfgang’s Substack Climate Uncensored

Today, I stumbled over a line in an article by New Lines Magazine​​ about the rise of the far-right AfD in Germany. Voters in one economically deprived region where the AfD fared particularly well were reported to complain about the traditional parties “prioritizing climate scientists and migrants over everyday Germans”. I have been following the rise of the far right in Western countries for a long time and have been quite aware of the link between perceived elite arrogance and the rise of right-wing populism. But this was the first time that I had seen climate scientists explicitly included as a primary target of political disillusionment – so far I had thought it was only me saying that we climate scientists had “let down humanity”.

Leaving the anti-immigration sentiment aside – both my parents were refugees and I have sympathies for migrants but also for people who feel abandoned by traditional politics – the fact that climate scientists are being identified with an out-of-touch elite that has all but completely abandoned voters cannot, in my opinion, be underestimated. Because it tells us something profound both about the state of our democracies, and of the ability of the current liberal-democratic system to face existential threats.

Let’s start with the climate scientists. Compared to the billionaires that wield power in the new right-wing populist US administration, or the finance-capital confidante millionaire and German chancellor in waiting, these are rather poorly paid academics and civil servants that often feel quite frustrated about nobody really listening to their warnings about an impending disaster. Many of them are thoroughly overworked, and often feel like they are doing humanity a huge favour, if only people were listening.

On the other side we have an increasing percentage of voters in Western democracies who actively vote against traditional political parties, expressing their dissatisfaction with the ruling elite. The failure of scientists’ warnings and the increasing polarisation, with the climate issue increasingly caught up in a cultural-political battle between liberals and populists, is often blamed on the influence of either fossil-fuel funded or right-wing disinformation. So the possibility that climate scientists could themselves be part of an elite system that has abandoned “ordinary people” will seem entirely alien to them. And yet, the existence of such a sentiment cannot be denied, at least since the day Donald Trump has fully put it into action.

So we have ended up with a situation where there are essentially two camps that live in entirely separate worlds. One camp full of anger and frustration about “those up there” not listening, the other incredulous about the lack of rational thought among “ordinary people”. And so, while more and more of those “ordinary people” either do not vote or vote for protest parties, the other side increasingly sees the need to restrict democratic rights in order to protect the democratic order itself.

And what is the common denominator of both developments, if not a breakdown of trust and a creeping abandonment of the foundations of a democratic order? Not only does a majority of people in countries considered to be free democracies believe that their own existing democracy serves mainly the interest of an elite minority1. We can also see democratic principles being increasingly abandoned, not only in the US. Just days ago, the German sitting but outgoing parliament, which has already been superseded by recent new elections, just changed the country’s constitution by a two-thirds majority that would not have existed if they had waited until the parliament were to meet again according to the recent election results.

The reason for this blatant disregard for the “will of the people”: the need for re-militarisation due to a perceived threat from Russia and the looming abandonment of Europe by the US. So what we can see is that whenever there is a perceived existential threat (like an invasion of Russian troops, but very much not the climate crisis), there is no respect for the spirit of democratic fair play. At a time of rising polarisation and populism – the AfD voted against the measure – the instinct of the elites is to circumvent democratic decision making. If this happens when there is only a perceived but no open, concrete threat – given the slow progress of a clearly superior Russian attacker in Ukraine – what should we expect when the situation is indeed critical?

There is a simple explanation for why democracy itself is increasingly being abandoned, despite the fact that a vast majority of people worldwide consider it to be a highly desirable form of governance: the existing liberal-democratic order rests on two conditions that are increasingly not met. First the possibility of unlimited material growth, to ensure that powerful elites can strive for domination while there is still enough left for the majority to feel privileged. And second a general trust in the system being reasonably fair to all. It should be clear that in a time of increasing resource depletion, climate disruption and geopolitical confrontation, these conditions are increasingly unrealistic. And therefore, we should view Trump’s attempt to deal with the climate threat by combating climate science information not as the personal whim of a bunch of lunatics, but as a glimpse into the future.

The history of democracy being replaced by right-wing populism is a long one, and goes back all the way to the ancient Athenian ‘tyrants’. The most successful, Peisistratos, seized power riding on a wave of popular dissatisfaction about missing land reforms. The coup against democracy proved popular and lasted for many decades. Now that we see autocratic, but often popular leaders pop up in many places around the world, there is every reason to believe that this is becoming more and more the default model of government in a crisis-ridden world.

Seen from a distance, and without the understandable fear and outrage this insight might provoke, it makes perfect sense. For quite some time it has been emerging that the Peoples’ Republic of China is the only major world power that takes environmental degradation and the climate crisis seriously – despite an on-going reliance on coal power. China is not a democracy, and neither a liberal-capitalist state, but an autocratic one-party system with a mixed state controlled-capitalist economy. And it is increasingly succeeding against Western competitors, not only in exports, but also technologically.

We need to realise that what seem to be radical changes now, for example when Western Europeans see US military backing withdrawn, will only be the beginning of a more radical reshuffling of the geopolitical cards. We are entering an epoch of less stability, multi-polarity, popular uprising, the abandonment of democratic rules, and increasing confrontation. If climate scientists had warned of these as a consequence of climate and other destabilisation, instead of going on about 1.5 degrees and net zero emissions, more people might have listened.

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